Tesla's Robotaxi Launch Could Revolutionize the Automotive Aftermarket

Tesla Launches Robotaxi Service, Aiming to Deploy Millions of Fully Autonomous Vehicles by 2026 - Automotive Industry in Turmoil.

The Robotaxi initiative represents more than just driverless cars; it's a groundbreaking mobility service model. Tesla is building a global-scale self-driving taxi network where vehicles can autonomously pick up passengers, recharge, and even allow owners to monetize their Teslas through an innovative owner-sharing fleet program.

Elon Musk predicts: "Most people will forgo private car ownership in the future, relying instead on low-cost, high-efficiency Robotaxi services."

If the progress goes smoothly, it is estimated that it will completely change the way cars are used and reshape the entire aftermarket ecosystem. 

At present, private cars are used only 5% on average every day, while the utilization rate of Robotaxi may reach more than 80%, which means that the total number of cars needed by society will be greatly reduced, but the mileage and maintenance needs of each car will increase exponentially. 

For the aftermarket, the traditional "car repair" logic will be subverted, and replaced by a new service system with intelligence, dataization and high turnover as the core.

In the field of maintenance, the popularity of autonomous driving will significantly reduce the accident rate, and the traditional accident car maintenance business may shrink by more than 70%. 

At the same time, the core value of the vehicle will shift from mechanical parts to electronic systems, and the maintenance demand for intelligent hardware such as lidar, cameras, and computing units will explode. 

These precision parts not only need regular cleaning and calibration, but also require upgrades due to technological iterations. More importantly, Tesla can remotely solve most software problems through OTA (over-the-air upgrade) technology, which will pose severe challenges to the diagnostic business of traditional repair shops.

The accessories market is also facing a reshuffle. The demand for traditional wearing parts such as brake pads and wipers may decrease by 80% because autonomous vehicles brake more smoothly and wear is greatly reduced.

However, intelligent hardware such as high-precision sensors and on-board computers will become new "consumables" and will be replaced according to fixed cycles. Battery health management will also shift from simple hardware maintenance to a "hardware + data service" model, and car owners may need to subscribe to the monitoring service of the battery management system (BMS). 

This change will completely change the pattern of the accessories supply chain, and traditional dealers may need to transform into smart hardware service providers. 

For 4S stores and maintenance channels, the demand for maintenance stations in traditional 4S stores will decrease, but data engineer positions will need to be increased to handle vehicle system diagnosis and upgrades. 

Some stores may be transformed into "experience centers + charging stations", and mobile service fleets will undertake more on-site maintenance work. 

For the Robotaxi fleet, there may be centralized large-scale maintenance centers that adopt an efficient operation model similar to aviation maintenance. This shift means that aftermarket service providers must replan their network layout and talent structure.

The insurance industry will undergo a fundamental transformation from "insurance of people" to "insurance of systems". As the risk of human driving decreases, the personal auto insurance market may shrink by more than 60%, but special insurance for autonomous driving systems will rise. 

Tesla is likely to launch its own insurance products, with dynamic pricing based on vehicle operation data. Accident handling will also become more efficient, and the data recorded by the autonomous driving system can achieve liability determination in seconds, greatly simplifying the claims process. 

In the face of this change, independent automotive aftermarket service providers need to prepare for the rainy day. On the one hand, they need to plan ahead for the maintenance capabilities of smart hardware, invest in special equipment and talent training; on the other hand, they need to actively explore new cooperation models with automakers, such as becoming an officially certified service provider or joining a regional service network. 

Those companies that stick to the traditional maintenance model may be eliminated, while service providers who can quickly adapt to the trend of intelligence and dataization will win new development space.