May. 26, 2026
By 2026, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has entered a new stage of high penetration, large-scale ownership, and full maturity. Latest industry data shows that the domestic NEV fleet has exceeded 60 million units, accounting for 15% of the country’s total vehicle stock. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicle retail sales has surpassed 61.4%, reaching a record high, with the annual overall sales penetration expected to remain above 60%.
Compared with the previous 43.97 million-unit base, the combination of a 60-million-scale vehicle fleet and over 60% market penetration indicates that NEVs have fully achieved market dominance over internal combustion engine vehicles. The industry growth logic has shifted from a single new-sales-driven model to a three-dimensional structure: new vehicle upgrades, stock replacement and maintenance, and after-sales market expansion. Supported by a vast installed base and high penetration, the upstream supply chain, midstream in-vehicle products, and downstream after-sales maintenance sectors are all entering a phase of structural expansion, with multiple niche segments poised for large-scale growth.
With a 60-million-unit vehicle base and over 60% new vehicle penetration, the development logic of the NEV supply chain has been fundamentally reshaped. In the early stage, growth was driven mainly by new vehicle production and sales. By 2026, however, the industry is entering a peak phase of stock replacement, forming a three-layer demand cycle covering new vehicle component upgrades, in-use part replacement, and aftermarket spare parts supply. Key segments such as power batteries, core electric drivetrain components, intelligent in-vehicle electronics, and lightweight advanced materials are breaking away from single-growth constraints and entering a long-term cycle of both volume and price expansion. At the same time, domestic substitution and technology upgrades are accelerating, further strengthening structural growth momentum across the upstream supply chain.
As the core component of new energy vehicles, power batteries are the most directly and significantly benefiting segment under a 60-million-vehicle stock market. In 2026, the first large-scale NEV fleet will enter the end-of-warranty and battery retirement cycle. Over 5 million vehicles are expected to reach battery replacement demand within the year, with millions more annually in the following years. This will unlock a trillion-level aftermarket battery replacement market, shifting the industry from new-vehicle-only supply to a full lifecycle model. At the same time, continuous upgrades in fast charging, long range, and safety performance are accelerating technological iteration. The rapid adoption of 800V high-voltage platforms, high-capacity batteries, and low-temperature battery technologies is driving ongoing upgrades in LFP and NCM systems. Demand for core materials—including cathodes, anodes, separators, and electrolytes—continues to expand steadily.
With NEV penetration exceeding 60%, the electric drive system—comprising motor, motor controller, and reducer—has fully replaced traditional combustion powertrains and become a critical standard configuration. Supported by a 60-million-vehicle installed base, the e-drive system is no longer limited to new vehicle production; after-sales repair, fault replacement, and routine maintenance demand are rapidly emerging. However, only around 20,000–30,000 enterprises in China currently hold qualified e-drive maintenance capabilities, far below the approximately 400,000 ICE vehicle service networks, creating a significant supply gap. This directly drives explosive demand for high-voltage wiring harnesses, power control chips, motor stators and rotors, electric compressors, high-voltage relays, and fuses.
Rising smartization in new vehicles combined with massive retrofit demand from the 60-million-vehicle stock is fueling sustained growth in this segment. Most new NEVs now come standard with intelligent cockpits, driver-assistance systems, and connectivity functions, while a large portion of older vehicles require upgrades. This is accelerating demand for automotive-grade chips, high-definition displays, millimeter-wave radar, in-vehicle cameras, domain controllers, and vehicle operating systems, driving continuous expansion of smart hardware supply chains.
Range improvement and safety enhancement remain long-term priorities for the NEV industry, driving steady penetration of lightweight and functional materials. In 2026, aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys, carbon fiber composites, and high-strength steel continue to gain share in new vehicle production. Meanwhile, maintenance and replacement needs across a 60-million-vehicle fleet are boosting aftermarket demand for structural parts and refurbished components. In addition, NEV-specific materials such as battery fire-resistant insulation, high-voltage electrical insulation, waterproof sealing materials, and acoustic materials are becoming stable long-term growth drivers supported by the expanding maintenance ecosystem.
A 60-million-vehicle NEV fleet corresponds to more than 60 million car owners, forming a vast and structurally unique consumer market for in-vehicle accessories. As penetration surpasses 60%, NEVs have shifted from niche products to mainstream family vehicles. Consumer demand is evolving from basic transportation needs to diversified requirements such as safety protection, smart convenience, personalized modification, and enhanced maintenance quality. Compared with traditional internal combustion vehicles, NEVs feature distinct characteristics including battery-centric layouts, high-voltage electrical systems, minimalist interiors, and pure electric driving behavior. These differences are driving the emergence of a wide range of dedicated, customized accessory categories. As a result, the automotive accessories market structure is being fundamentally reshaped, with multiple niche segments entering rapid growth and diversification.
Battery underbody protection has become a primary necessity for NEV owners. Among the 60-million-vehicle stock, more than 80% of owners install battery underbody guards to prevent scraping, impact damage, and water exposure, driving consistently high market penetration. At the same time, NEVs feature large central screens, integrated seating, and minimalist interiors as standard configurations, creating strong demand for dedicated accessories such as anti-explosion screen films, high-definition protective films, custom anti-slip floor mats, breathable seat covers, sunshade pads, and other interior protection products.
Charging is a high-frequency, essential behavior for NEV users, and the 60-million-vehicle base continues to expand demand for charging-related accessories. With the rise of private EV ownership, home charging piles, portable fast chargers, and backup charging cables have become standard equipment. Meanwhile, protective products such as charging pile enclosures, rainproof and sunproof covers, and anti-theft locks are seeing steady growth. In public charging scenarios, niche products like fast-to-slow charging adapters, plug protection covers, and emergency charging devices are forming a stable and recurring demand market.
NEV owners are predominantly younger consumers, driving strong demand for personalized and intelligent modifications. The 60-million-vehicle stock base provides a massive aftermarket foundation for upgrades such as infotainment system enhancement, ambient lighting modification, upgraded in-car audio systems, smart rearview mirror retrofits, and seat ventilation/heating upgrades. In addition, practical accessories such as in-car refrigerators, portable air pumps, storage kits, and fast-charging car chargers are becoming mainstream choices. Consumable products also show stable demand, including NEV-specific low-noise tires, low rolling resistance tires, dedicated wiper blades, and heat-insulating films. These high-frequency replacement products, supported by a massive installed base, form a trillion-level stable market with strong repeat purchase behavior and high resilience.
Due to the unique characteristics of high-voltage systems and power batteries, safety and emergency products have become essential configurations for NEVs. In 2026, with continued tightening of safety standards, products such as vehicle fire blankets, lithium battery fire extinguishers, battery cooling sprays, high-voltage insulation gloves, emergency power-off tools, and leakage detection devices are being widely adopted across consumers, service shops, and OEM channels. As safety regulations become stricter and consumer awareness increases, the NEV-specific emergency safety equipment market is expanding rapidly, emerging as a new high-growth segment within the broader automotive accessories industry.
In 2026, a 60-million-unit NEV fleet, large-scale vehicle warranty expiration, and policy-driven dismantling of repair monopolies are jointly pushing the NEV aftermarket into a rapid expansion cycle. Industry data indicates that the NEV aftermarket is maintaining a high compound annual growth rate of around 20%, with total market size expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2026. The core maintenance segment alone is projected to surpass 160 billion yuan. The industry is currently characterized by a massive installed base, higher maintenance pricing, significant supply shortages, and accelerating standardization. These factors are fundamentally reshaping the traditional ICE-dominated aftermarket structure, with third-party maintenance providers, specialized repair services, and supporting service ecosystems all entering a broad growth phase.
Maintenance of the e-drive system is the core growth engine of the NEV aftermarket and one of the most profitable segments. Unlike ICE vehicles, NEVs eliminate engines and transmissions, concentrating maintenance demand on the battery, motor, and electronic control systems. Repair pricing shows a clear premium effect—minor electrical faults and system repairs can cost 2–2.5 times more than traditional vehicles, while battery servicing, cell replacement, and control system diagnostics deliver significantly higher margins than conventional maintenance. In 2026, nearly 5 million NEVs are expected to exit warranty coverage, with a large portion of maintenance demand shifting from authorized dealerships to third-party service providers, fully releasing industry upside.
NEVs are fundamentally reshaping traditional maintenance structures. Conventional ICE-related services such as engine oil, filters, and spark plugs are rapidly declining, while NEV-specific services are becoming mainstream, including battery health diagnostics, high-voltage insulation testing, cooling system maintenance, chassis anti-corrosion checks, brake system servicing, and deep air-conditioning cleaning. In 2026, NEV maintenance visit frequency is increasing by more than 20% year-on-year, while the ICE maintenance market continues to shrink, highlighting a clear structural divergence between the two segments.
A widening supply-demand gap is driving strong growth in supporting industries such as training and equipment supply. Currently, only around 5%–7% of service providers hold certified NEV repair qualifications, while the industry faces a talent shortage of over one million technicians. This has accelerated the development of training programs, certification systems, apprenticeship models, and workshop empowerment services, while also pushing rapid standardization of NEV maintenance capabilities and infrastructure.
As early-generation NEVs reach end-of-life, 2026 marks the beginning of large-scale scrappage. This drives long-term growth in vehicle dismantling, component remanufacturing, and battery recycling industries. Key components such as motors, electronic control units, and structural parts can be remanufactured for secondary use, significantly reducing aftermarket costs while addressing persistent challenges such as high spare-part prices and slow supply cycles.
With a projected 60 million vehicle parc by 2026 and a penetration rate exceeding 60%, the industry structure of new energy vehicles marks a full transition away from chaotic incremental growth. The sector is entering a new cycle characterized by deep value extraction from existing stock and efficiency improvement across the entire value chain. Industrial dividends are shifting from the upstream new vehicle manufacturing segment toward downstream supply chain support, in-vehicle consumption, and after-sales services, forming three clearly defined high-growth tracks.
Upstream suppliers are no longer solely dependent on new vehicle demand. Driven by stock replacement cycles, technological upgrades, and domestic substitution, sectors such as power batteries, electric powertrain components, smart electronics, and advanced materials will continue to maintain strong growth momentum. Midstream in-vehicle products are moving beyond standardization and homogenization, with trends shifting toward new energy-specific customization, safety intelligence, and refined consumer demand, leading to diversified niche market expansion. Downstream after-sales markets are breaking through traditional monopolistic barriers, with electric powertrain maintenance, professional services, and recycling/remanufacturing opening up a trillion-scale blue ocean, accompanied by simultaneous expansion in talent and equipment support. Over the next 3–5 years, supported by a massive installed base and continuously increasing penetration, the entire new energy vehicle ecosystem will continue to benefit from sustained policy support, market expansion, and technological advancement. It is set to become the most important growth engine of China’s automotive industry.
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